While the existing electricity generation and transmission infrastructure can handle the
charging needs of current and near-term numbers of plug-in electric vehicles, large-scale deployment
of electric vehicles in the LDV fleet would require significant investments to upgrade and reinforce the
power distribution system. Our analysis does not account for these costs nor does it tackle the
question of who will pay for them.
Hydrogen is another important candidate for decarbonizing transportation. The potential use of
hydrogen for LDVs is closely coupled with other sectors of the economy. Hydrogen can be a major
contributor in overcoming many of the challenges of reaching net-zero emissions by providing
(1) large-scale energy storage required to support electric power systems with high penetration of
renewables, (2) low-carbon fuels for long-haul freight, (3) decarbonization of major industrial
processes including steelmaking and fertilizer production, and (4) decarbonization of building
heating systems. Given hydrogen’s potential role in decarbonizing multiple economic sectors, there
is an opportunity to develop a massive hydrogen production, storage, distribution, and utilization
ecosystem. And this future ecosystem could benefit hydrogen fuel cell LDVs by lowering costs
and increasing availability of hydrogen. While hydrogen fuel cell LDVs are often the most
discussed application for a nascent hydrogen ecosystem, passenger vehicle travel is also the
application that requires the largest distribution network, and the vehicle market itself is more
sensitive to capital costs than fuel costs. The more economic and pragmatic strategy for building
out a hydrogen ecosystem might be to start with applications that have large fuel demands
that could be met with a smaller number of fueling stations, e.g., vehicle fleets and heavy-
duty trucking. However, the time for deploying alternative fuel vehicles is already upon us. In
the world as it exists today, even in California with its strong pro-hydrogen policies, fuel cell
LDVs are at a disadvantage relative to electric vehicles because public charging stations are
more abundant than hydrogen fueling stations and early adopters of electric vehicles can charge at
home while adopters of fuel cell vehicles cannot. In California there are currently more than 17 times
as many public Level 3 charging stations as there are hydrogen fueling stations. Nevertheless, fuel
cell electric vehicles have a clear advantage over battery electric vehicles in terms of fueling time
and vehicle range for their owners.
Both battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles have a potential role to play in large-scale
transportation decarbonization and in efforts to reduce air pollution. Both need continuing
support to overcome cost and convenience barriers, but of the two, battery electric vehicles
face the path of lower resistance during the transition away from internal combustion engines
within the LDV fleet. The evolution toward zero-carbon ground transportation solutions
may well include hydrogen for long-haul and high-mileage applications (both heavy- and light-
duty) that require fast fueling, while short-haul and low-mileage applications will more likely be
captured by battery electric vehicles.
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