@cege @Valkuil @NotoriousP
@Marsu @Stoffer @jvc
Op Seeking Alpha schrijft ene dit in verband met de convertible notes van PACB:
Ik vraag mij eigenlijk af waarom ze niet al hun convertible notes verder in de tijd gepusht hebben, maar slechts de helft? Zal toch zijn omdat Softbank dat niet zag zitten...
In hetzelfde artikel wordt ook de vergelijking met Invitae gemaakt (
@cege : ik dacht dat jij die historie hier al eens gepost had, buiten de hoge schuldenlast zie ik niet echt parallellen tussen beide bedrijven), die ook ten onder zijn gegaan aan hun schuldenlast.
Soit, ik denk dat hij het iets te zwart inziet (op basis van huidige financiën en management is wel degelijk bezig met verbeteren van winstgevendheid), maar is wel een goede omschrijving van de worst case... Recente zware daling zou te wijten zijn aan shorters die blijkbaar uitgaan van dat worst case scenario....
The financial mechanics and strategic implications of these convertible notes become increasingly significant if the company's stock price were to substantially deviate from the initial conversion price, particularly in a downward trajectory to, for example, $6 per share. Under such circumstances, the attractiveness and viability of converting the debt into equity would be drastically altered, potentially leading to a preference among note holders to seek repurchase at par value, thus imposing a significant cash outlay obligation on PacBio.
This situation necessitates PacBio to earmark substantial liquidity for the redemption of the $900 million principal amount, a task compounded by potential operational or financial challenges mirrored in the depressed stock price.
The repayment obligation, while straightforward in principle, underscores a critical liquidity challenge for PacBio. Given the current cash-burn, the company might face difficulties in generating sufficient cash flows or accessing alternative financing options at the maturity date. This scenario might necessitate exploring strategic alternatives to manage or restructure the debt obligations to mitigate the impact on the company's financial health.
Negotiations for restructuring the convertible notes could take various forms, aiming to align the repayment or conversion terms more closely with the company's current financial reality. Potential restructuring strategies might include extending the maturity dates, reducing the payable interest rates, or adjusting the conversion mechanism to reflect a more realistic stock valuation, potentially making conversion more palatable to note holders or less financially burdensome for the company.
Another avenue could be proposing an exchange offer, where the company offers new securities with modified terms to the note holders. These new terms could feature a longer maturity period, different interest rates, or altered conversion rights, designed to provide PacBio with more manageable financial obligations while offering note holders value retention or recovery prospects.
However, the success of such negotiations heavily depends on the willingness of note holders to accept revised terms, which might involve assuming further risks or accepting losses. The disposition of note holders towards such adjustments will likely vary. In this delicate balance, the company's negotiation leverage and the outcome of these discussions will critically hinge on its ability to present a convincing case for its future growth and financial stability, alongside the intrinsic value and potential upside of accepting the restructured terms. What we know is that these type of situations do not tend to be good for most investors.
