In Loudoun County—where parent groups have made national headlines as they push back against critical race theory in their public schools—Youngkin is on track to perform 14 points better than Trump did in 2020, the model shows. In Fairfax County, meanwhile, support for Youngkin is 7 points higher than Trump's 2020 margin. Biden
dominated both counties last year, winning Loudoun and Fairfax by 25 and 42 points, respectively. Youngkin needs to beat Trump's 2020 statewide performance by at least 5 points to win the race.
Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe's recent collapse among voters concerned about education may explain the party's apparent failure to maintain their hold on Northern Virginia. As recently as September, McAuliffe enjoyed a 33-point lead over Youngkin among education-minded voters, a
Washington Post-Schar School
poll showed. Fast forward just one month, and those voters
favor Youngkin by 9 points—
a stunning 42-point swing. Education also became the biggest issue in the race during that time, with 24 percent of likely voters
identifying it as their top priority in late October, compared to 15 percent a month prior.
McAuliffe's rapid free fall with education voters—and the subsequent rise in those who prioritize the issue—came after the former governor made what could become a race-defining blunder. During a September debate, McAuliffe defended his decision to veto a 2016 bill that would have notified parents of "sexually explicit content" in their children's classrooms by saying, "I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach." While Youngkin quickly spread the remark statewide through an ad campaign, he has specifically targeted Loudoun and Fairfax, where parents have vocally opposed critical race theory in their public schools.
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