Troubles op de oliemarkt:
Misschien. Of misschien niet.
oilprice.com
One of these factors is the fundamentals situation in oil. Demand for oil keeps
surprising to the positive while non-OPEC supply growth—except in Guyana—is not really living up to the hype, with growth in the U.S. shale patch set to
slow down, despite Trump’s presidency. Yet no one trading oil seems to care much about fundamentals because they are watching China and its oil demand fluctuations.
The other factor that could potentially aid OPEC+ in its efforts to make oil more expensive is geopolitics. A Trump presidency will probably mean tighter sanctions on Iran, and that would, in turn, mean fewer Iranian barrels reaching international buyers, which would additionally crimp supply, potentially boosting prices. Interestingly, traders are still ignoring this even as analysts step up the warnings.
“We think that oil prices are about $5 per barrel undervalued relative to the fair value based on the level of inventories,” Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities Dan Struyven
told Reuters recently. Echoing the sentiment, Morgan Stanley’s Martijn Rats suggested in comments to the publication that the whole oil surplus “story” is not yet a fact—and may never become a fact because producers tend to respond to the risk of a surplus by curbing production.
Still, prices remain depressed, and whenever they do inch up, they do so modestly in response to a production outage or an escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine—and these jumps never last. There’s always some news report about Chinese demand or the latest from the International Energy Agency that quickly puts an end to the climb.