Archief - Kopenhagen 2009

Anarchist12911 zei:

Ja, we hebben zeker geen strenge winter gehad dit jaar... :ironic:

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TimeFtw zei:

30 posts terug zit je constant te zagen over klimaatmodellen en nu kom je zelf insinuaties maken op basis van de huidige winterprik en informatie (bron?) van de laatste 5 jaar.

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Anarchist12911 zei:

In de VS is het ook een zeer strenge winter geweest.

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This graphic shows the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole.

Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows. The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb.

"Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States," says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting."

The study, by authors at NCAR, Climate Central, The Weather Channel, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor, the Department of Energy, and Climate Central.

If temperatures were not warming, the number of record daily highs and lows being set each year would be approximately even. Instead, for the period from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2009, the continental United States set 291,237 record highs and 142,420 record lows, as the country experienced unusually mild winter weather and intense summer heat waves.

A record daily high means that temperatures were warmer on a given day than on that same date throughout a weather station's history.

...

The study also found that the two-to-one ratio across the country as a whole could be attributed more to a comparatively small number of record lows than to a large number of record highs. This indicates that much of the nation's warming is occurring at night, when temperatures are dipping less often to record lows. This finding is consistent with years of climate model research showing that higher overnight lows should be expected with climate change.

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"If the climate weren't changing, you would expect the number of temperature records to diminish significantly over time," says Claudia Tebaldi, a statistician with Climate Central who is one of the paper's co-authors. "As you measure the high and low daily temperatures each year, it normally becomes more difficult to break a record after a number of years. But as the average temperatures continue to rise this century, we will keep setting more record highs."

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Even in the first nine months of this year, when the United States cooled somewhat after a string of unusually warm years, the ratio of record daily high to record daily low temperatures was more than three to two.

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Despite the increasing number of record highs, there will still be occasional periods of record cold, Meehl notes.

"One of the messages of this study is that you still get cold days," Meehl says. "Winter still comes. Even in a much warmer climate, we're setting record low minimum temperatures on a few days each year. But the odds are shifting so there's a much better chance of daily record highs instead of lows."

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/maxmin.jsp#

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Anarchist12911 zei:

(En ik vind het eigenlijk wel komisch hoe bijna iedereen er daarginds van overtuigd is dat "Climate Change" een 'europees' fabeltje is... zelfs een aantal burgerlijke en aeronautische ingenieurs (die voor de weerstations van de luchtmacht van de VS werken.))

Lijkt me gewoon vreemd waarom er in ons nietszeggende Belgenlandje weer de socialisten en groenen volop opgefokked zijn door dergelijke hype en aan de andere kant van de wereld, een meer technologisch geavanceerde supermacht met een groter wereldaandeel aan academici het tegenovergestelde beweert...

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American Academy of Pediatrics
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Association of State Climatologists
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Institute of Physics
American Institute of Professional Geologists
American Medical Association
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
American Public Health Association
American Society for Microbiology
American Society of Agronomy
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Statistical Association
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Ecological Society of America
Environmental Protection Agency
Geological Society of America
National Academy of Sciences
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Organization of Biological Field Stations
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of American Foresters
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
U.S. Global Change Research Program

http://scentofpine.wordpress.com/2009/12/14/consensus/

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Of our survey participants, 90% were from U.S. institutions and 6% were from Canadian institutions; the remaining 4% were from institutions in 21 other nations.

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Results show that overall, 90% of participants answered “risen” to question 1 (When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?).

http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf

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Between March 19 through May 28, 2007 Harris Interactive conducted a mail survey of a random sample of 489 self-identified members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union who are listed in the current edition of American Men and Women of Science. A random sample of this size carries a theoretical sampling error of +/- four percentage points. A detailed description of the study’s methodology as well as that of the earlier Gallup survey is available on request.

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Ninety-seven percent of the climate scientists surveyed believe “global average temperatures have increased” during the past century.

http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html

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denkimi zei:

de laatste 5 jaar is er in de skigebieden in de alpen en vogezen meer sneeuw gevallen dan de 25 jaar daarvoor, ze viel ook al vroeger en bleef langer liggen.

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The number of days with a snow depth above a certain threshold is the key factor for winter tourism in an Alpine country like Switzerland. An investigation of 34 long-term stations between 200 and 1800 m asl (above sea level) going back for at least the last 60 years (1948–2007) shows an unprecedented series of low snow winters in the last 20 years. The signal is uniform despite high regional differences. A shift detection analysis revealed a significant step-like decrease in snow days at the end of the 1980's with no clear trend since then. This abrupt change resulted in a loss of 20% to 60% of the total snow days. The stepwise increase of the mean winter temperature at the end of the 1980's and its close correlation with the snow day anomalies corroborate the sensitivity of the mid-latitude winter to the climate change induced temperature increase.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL033998.shtml

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Long-term trends of snow depth show a significant reduction in the contribution of snow accumulation from core-winter (1 December to 1 March) compared to early and late-winter periods. Largest values of snow-depth since 1928 were measured in the 1940s and 1950s. Comparison of monthly changes in snow-depth with precipitation measurements underlines the high influence of wind drift on snow-depth during winter season from 1 October to 30 April. ... Both maximum snow-depth and winter season precipitation show a clear decreasing trend for inter-annual variability. A statistical relationship between air temperature and fraction of solid precipitation is used for estimation of temporal trends in the fraction of solid precipitation at measurement sites. For summer a decrease of about 1% of solid precipitation per decade was found for the lowest elevated sites whereas fraction of solid precipitation in winter remains stable.

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121588328/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

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The Alps have undergone an exceptionally high temperature increase of around + 2 °C between the late 19th and early 21st century, more than twice the rate of average warming of the Northern hemisphere. Furthermore, a slight trend towards an increase in precipitation in the north alpine region and a decrease in the south has been recorded.Regional climate models project continuously rising temperatures for the Alps up until the end of the 21st century (between + 2.6 °C and + 3.9 °C), with an accelerated increase in the second half of the century. Changes in precipitation are moderate in terms of the yearly total, but show significant changes within the seasons, mainly a decrease in summer precipitation and, in most regions, an increase in spring and winter precipitation. Precipitation in winter will increasingly fall as rain rather than snow, leading to fewer days with snow cover. Corresponding with these changes in precipitation and snow cover, increase in winter run-off and decrease in summer run-off will be enhanced.

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/alps-climate-change-and-adaptation-2009/at_download/file

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Peephole zei:

Paper uit 2008:

Nog één uit 2008:

Rapport van de EEA uit 2009:

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tom1 zei:

Alez, wanneer er iemand afkomt met publicaties en artikels, komt denkimi af met oude foto's en videobeelden.

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tom1 zei:

Alez, wanneer er iemand afkomt met publicaties en artikels, komt denkimi af met oude foto's en videobeelden.

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denkimi zei:

van die foto's en videobeelden ben ik tenminste zeker dat ze objectief weergeven

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Ruben666 zei:

Zijn an sich natuurlijk ook manipuleerbaar. (Hoewel het te betwijfelen valt dat in dit geval skigebieden op zo een manier skiërs zouden proberen te ronselen ).

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Peephole zei:

http://users.telenet.be/peephole/AGW/Einstein Paper.jpg

"Ej prutser, kom eens met foto's af."

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denkimi zei:

van die foto's en videobeelden ben ik tenminste zeker dat ze objectief weergeven hoe de situatie is, in tegenstelling tot alle mooie rapporten die geschreven zijn om iets te bewijzen en dus al bij voorbaat subjectief zijn.

maar ja, een tekstje geeft de situatie natuurlijk veel beter weer dan afbeeldingen van de omgeving en sneeuwhoogtes die opgegeven worden door de skigebieden zelfd :ironic:

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denkimi zei:

ik heb het over zelfgemaakt foto's en video's tijdens skireizen.



excuseer lieve man, mijn digitaal archief op de computer gaat maar beperkt tot de winter van 2005 terug, alle foto's daarvoor en de helft van van de gemaakte tot 2007 gaat ge moeten komen bekijken in ouderwetse albums. de video's staan ook nog voor 90% op een ouderwetse casette en liggen te wachten tot ze gedigitaliseerd worden, als ge tijd hebt om ze te bekijken moogt ge dat gerust komen doen.

wat ik u wel kan aanbieden zijn beelden van video's gemaakt in 02 en 03 en de webcambeelden van 2009 tot vandaag.

februari 2002
februari 2003
februari 2009
vandaag

het is natuurlijk perfect mogelijk dat die paar skigebieden die we in de gaten houden toevallig diegene zijn die geen last hebben van verminderde sneeuwval, als dat het geval is dan neem ik mijn woorden terug.

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nite zei:

Dat van die record high and record lows in https://www.beyondgaming.be/forums kan toch ook gewoon veroorzaakt worden doordat de variantie van lage temperaturen daalt en de die van hoge temperaturen stijgt?

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e.House zei:

Ga je nu ff met een moment opname bewijzen dat er geen sprake kan zijn van klimaatopwarming door een paar foto's met sneeuw te tonen?

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Peephole zei:

Protip: Ik vroeg niet om foto's, ik was gewoon uw debiele visie op wetenschap aan het uitlachen.

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denkimi zei:

dat hebt gij erbij verzonnen. ik zeg nergens iets over klimaatopwarming, alleen over sneeuwhoogtes in skigebieden.

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