CBO and JCT now estimate that the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of just under $1.1 trillion over the 2012–2021 period—about
$50 billion less than the agencies’ March 2011 estimate for that 10-year period.
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CBO and JCT have previously estimated that the ACA will, on net, reduce budget deficits over the 2012–2021 period; that estimate of the overall budgetary impact of the ACA has not been updated.
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The current estimate of the gross costs of the coverage provisions ($1,496 billion through 2021) is about $50 billion higher than last year’s projection; however, the other budgetary effects of those provisions, which partially offset those gross costs, also have increased in CBO and JCT’s estimates (to $413 billion), leading to the small decrease in the net 10-year tally.
Over the 10-year period from 2012 through 2021, enactment of the coverage provisions of the ACA was projected last March to increase federal deficits by $1,131 billion, whereas the March 2012 estimate indicates that those provisions will increase deficits by $1,083 billion.
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Compared with prior law, the ACA is now estimated by CBO and JCT to reduce the number of nonelderly people without health insurance coverage by 30 million to 33 million in 2016 and subsequent years, leaving 26 million to 27 million nonelderly residents uninsured in those years (see Table 3, at the end of this report).
The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance is projected to rise from 82 percent in 2012 to 93 percent by 2022.
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CHANGES IN COVERAGE IN 2016 (Millions of nonelderly people, by calendar year)
March 2011 Estimate: -32
March 2012 Estimate: -30
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/03-13-Coverage Estimates.pdf
