Charts zien er niet goed uit, blijf bij vorige standpunten.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco...t-stocks-are-heading-for-a-devastating-crash/
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Merendeel (US)stocks sold, en short gegaan(SPXS) S&P500 Bear 3X ETF
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The SP500 was unable to stay above its key 1,990 support level, and the index is now back in its 1,900 to 1,990 trading range. 1,900 to 1,905 is the next important support level to watch if the SP500 continues to sell-off. The relief rally that took place in August occurred on very low volume, which makes this rejection of the 1,990 level unsurprising.
One of the most worrisome developments is the record amount of margin debt that traders are currently using to bet on rising stock prices (see chart below). Traders have borrowed approximately $180 billion worth of margin, which far surpasses the amount of margin debt used during the Dot-com and 2007 stock bubbles. When a genuine bearish catalyst finally presents itself, bullish traders will be forced to unwind these leveraged bets in a panic, causing a powerful bear market.
U.S. stocks still have not had a 10 percent correction in three years, so the major indices are precariously overstretched on a technical basis, which increases the risk of a correction at any given point. There are several potential catalysts to be aware of that could bring about a correction or even worse this fall:
The Federal Reserve is slated to complete the tapering of its QE3 program in October. Quantitative easing has been one of the primary driving forces behind the current stock bubble, so its ending is a reason for concern. The ending of QE1 and QE2 led to 9 percent and 11.6 percent respective sell-offs in the SP500. The Fed is also expected to raise its benchmark Fed Funds interest rate in early 2015 after keeping rates at virtually zero percent for almost six years. While the Fed will likely raise rates at a slow pace, it still represents the gradual ending of one of the market’s major driving forces.
Mid-term election season is right around the corner, which creates political uncertainty and may encourage investors to book some profits in advance.
Geopolitical events are largely unpredictable, but the current tension with Ukraine-Russia and the U.S.’ campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria have the potential to spook the markets.
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Since the current bull run started in early-2009, the stock market has tripled in value while barely experiencing any pullbacks aside from brief corrections in 2010 and 2011, when the Global Financial Crisis was still in full swing.
Contrary to popular belief, the U.S. economy has not deleveraged or paid down debt after the financial crisis; total outstanding credit is actually hitting new highs.
U.S. private sector leverage has continued to even higher levels after the financial crisis
As mentioned earlier, record-low corporate borrowing costs (thanks to the Fed’s QE and the bond bubble) has led to a corporate borrowing binge that has financed approximately $1.9 trillion worth of stock buybacks from Q1-2009 through Q1-2014
The last time corporate stock buybacks hit this level was right before the stock market crash of 2008
The Federal Reserve has actually admitted that U.S. stocks would be 50 percent lower if it was not for their aggressive stimulation (using a 1994 to 2011 sample period, which is pre-QE3)
Record low borrowing costs and the soaring stock market has encouraged traders to aggressively use margin to finance their stock purchases, which is exactly what occurred during the Dot-com Bubble and the U.S. housing and credit bubble
The total market capitalization to GDP ratio, which Warren Buffet described as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”, also confirms that stocks are in bubble territory
The Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus policies of the past five years have reinflated the stock bubble, which is why nearly every valuation indicator shows that stocks are quite overvalued once again. When stock market valuations hit generational highs
Another valuation indicator, Tobin’s Q Ratio (the ratio of the market’s price to replacement costs), shows that U.S. stocks are overvalued.
Stock markets become overvalued when stock prices rise at a much faster rate than earnings, which is what has occurred for the past several years.
An indicator called the Financial Stress Index shows that investors are becoming downright euphoric and complacent just like they did during last decade’s bubble
Like the Financial Stress Index, an indicator called the Volatility Index or VIX shows that stock market investors have become euphoric and complacent like they did from 2004 to 2007
Citigroup’s Panic/Euphoria sentiment indicator also confirms that investors are excessively optimistic, as they typically are during bubbles.
A sentiment indicator that combines the Volatility Index and Investors Intelligence survey data shows that bearish market sentiment is at a multi-decade low, which also occurred during last decade’s bubble.
CNN Money’s Fear & Greed Index shows that “extreme greed” is the dominant emotion that is currently driving the stock market
Bedankt!